I am attempting to create a linear model that incorporates a Sine Wave with decreasing amplitude over time.
I am able to successfully incorporate a simple sine wave into my model using the following code:
#sine curve equation resolving 12 months
xc<-cos(2*pi*stan$num/12)
xs<-sin(2*pi*stan$num/12)
#other variables
Time_bb <- as.Date(stan$C_Month_Year, format = "%m/%d/%y")
Count1_bb <- stan$stan_calls
#fitted complete model
cos.f_bb <- fitted(cos.m_bb)
cos.m_bb <- lm(Count1_bb ~ Time_bb + xc + xs)
cos.f_bb <- fitted(cos.m_bb)
stan$fit_m <- cos.f_bb
p5 <- ggplot(stan, aes(x = Time_bb, y = stan_calls) ) +
geom_line(data = stan, color = 'red', aes(y = fit_m)) +
geom_smooth(method = lm, se = FALSE) +
geom_point(size=1)
This code results in the following graph:
However, I believe I would get a better model fit if I were able to incorporate a decreasing amplitude over time. However, I'm at a loss of how to properly code this, and more importantly control the magnitude of the decrease in amplitude.
I attempted some of the suggestions detailed in Drawing sine wave with increasing Amplitude and frequency over time. And using the following code:
#sine curve equation resolving 12 months
f <- 12
f_c <- 1
T <- 1/f
t <- seq(0, 12, T)
A <- t
stan$num/12
carrier <- cos(2*pi*f_c*t)
out <- A*carrier
out <- rev(out)
out<- out[0:65]
#other variables
Time_bb <- as.Date(stan$C_Month_Year, format = "%m/%d/%y")
Count1_bb <- stan$stan_calls
#complete model
cos.m_bb <- lm(Count1_bb ~ Time_bb + out)
tidy(cos.m_bb, conf.int = TRUE)
#fitted complete model
cos.f_bb <- fitted(cos.m_bb)
fit.lm_bb <- lm(Count1_bb~out)
stan$fit_bb <- fitted(fit.lm_bb)
stan$fit.res_bb <- resid(fit.lm_bb)
cos.m_bb <- lm(Count1_bb ~ Time_bb + out)
cos.f_bb <- fitted(cos.m_bb)
stan$fit_m <- cos.f_bb
p5 <- ggplot(stan, aes(x = Time_bb, y = stan_calls) ) +
geom_line(data = stan, color = 'red', aes(y = fit_m)) +
geom_point()
I was able to create the following graph:
However, I don't understand how to properly manipulate f, T, f_c, t, and A to obtain a better model fit. Any help would be greatly appreciated!
A head of the database I am using looks like this:
head(stan)
C_Month_Year stan_calls
1 7/1/14 0.1154295
2 8/1/14 0.2049913
3 9/1/14 0.1786142
4 10/1/14 0.1453100
5 11/1/14 0.1238671
6 12/1/14 0.1289842