ggplot to visualize temperature extreme return event, SPM.6 IPCC 2021

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I am looking to reproduce this figure SPM.6 from IPCC, 2021. Figure SPM.6 IPCC, 2021

I have different data representing the proportions of years within a 20-year range that exceeds threshold values for defined temperature-conditions. I want to visualize how the proportions rise as global temperature (TAS) rise. It is visualized in this plot: Scatterplot of 2018-like events TAS vs. P

Are there any ideas as to how to recreate this plot?

This is my df, where Value = TAS:

# A tibble: 117 × 7
   modelname                                      GCM   YearRange MidYear     P RCP_Scenario Value
   <chr>                                          <chr> <chr>       <dbl> <dbl> <chr>        <dbl>
 1 historical.NCC.NorESM1.M_historical_r1i1p1_GE… NorE… 2001-2020    2010  0.05 hist         0.298
 2 rcp26.CNRM.CERFACS.CNRM.CM5_rcp26_r1i1p1_GERI… CNRM… 2021-2040    2030  0.05 rcp26        0.715
 3 rcp26.CNRM.CERFACS.CNRM.CM5_rcp26_r1i1p1_GERI… CNRM… 2081-2100    2090  0.05 rcp26        1.06 
 4 rcp26.ICHEC.EC.EARTH_rcp26_r12i1p1_GERICS.REM… EC-E… 2061-2080    2070  0.05 rcp26        1.05 
 5 rcp26.MIROC.MIROC5_rcp26_r1i1p1_CLMcom.CCLM4.… MIRO… 2041-2060    2050  0.05 rcp26        1.05 
 6 rcp26.MIROC.MIROC5_rcp26_r1i1p1_GERICS.REMO20… MIRO… 2041-2060    2050  0.05 rcp26        1.05 
 7 rcp26.MPI.M.MPI.ESM.LR_rcp26_r1i1p1_UHOH       MPI-… 2041-2060    2050  0.05 rcp26        0.912
 8 rcp26.NCC.NorESM1.M_rcp26_r1i1p1_GERICS.REMO2… NorE… 2061-2080    2070  0.05 rcp26        0.865
 9 rcp26.NCC.NorESM1.M_rcp26_r1i1p1_SMHI.RCA4_v1  NorE… 2061-2080    2070  0.1  rcp26        0.865
10 rcp45.ICHEC.EC.EARTH_rcp45_r12i1p1_GERICS.REM… EC-E… 2081-2100    2090  0.05 rcp45        1.87 
107 more rows

I looked into the IPCC's data on this website: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-6

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/data-access

https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Chapter-11

Where there should be information to find, but they don't elaborate on this exact figure and it's all written in python. I'm quite new to working with R and have never worked with python.

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