Specify log-normal family in BAMBI model

Question

I'm trying to fit a simple Bayesian regression model to some right-skewed data. Thought I'd try setting family to a log-normal distribution. I'm using pymc3 wrapper BAMBI. Is there a way to build a custom family with a log-normal distribution?

Answer 1

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, I think all you need to do is specify link='log' in the fit() call. If your assumption is correct, the exponentiated linear prediction will be normally distributed, and the default error distribution is gaussian, so I don't think you need to build a custom family for this—the default gaussian family with a log link should work fine. But feel free to clarify if this doesn't address your question.

Answer 2

It depends on what you want the mean function of the model to look like.

If you want a model like

then Yes, this is easily achieved by simply log transforming Y and then estimating the usual linear model with Normal response. Notice that in this model Y is an exponential function of the predictor X, so when plotting Y against X (both untransformed), the regression line can curve up or down. It also has a multiplicative error term so that the variance is greater for larger predicted Y values. We can say that such a model has a log link function and a lognormal response.

But if you want a model like

then No, this kind of model is not currently supported by bambi*. This is a model with a lognormal response but an identity link function. The regression of Y on X is a straight line, but the errors have the same lognormal distribution at every point along X, so that the variance does not increase for larger predicted Y values. Note that this is an unusual model that I personally have never actually seen used.

* It's possible in theory to roll your own custom Families (although it would require some slight hacking), but the way this is designed in bambi ultimately depends on the families implemented in statsmodels.genmod, which does not currently include lognormal.