I've been struggling with this problem all day. I've got a set of events each with probabilities.
{'Bob': 0.82,
'Derek': 0.69,
'Sarah': 0.91,
'Peter': 0.46,
'Amy': 0.62,
'Ryan': 0.7}
I created a list of outcomes that are not conditional. For example P(Derek) and P(Amy), which is the intersection, so I multiply.
P(Derek ∩ Amy) = .82 *.62 = 0.42779999999999996
Here is my full list of outcomes I'm interested in:
{('Derek', 'Amy'): 0.42779999999999996,
('Bob', 'Peter', 'Amy'): 0.233864,
('Bob', 'Ryan', 'Sarah'): 0.52234,
('Bob', 'Ryan', 'Amy'): 0.35588,
...
('Ryan', 'Sarah', 'Derek'): 0.43953}
None of my outcomes are duplicates nor are they supersets.I want to find the probability that exactly one of these occurs.
Is this the correct method?
prob = 1.0
for event in events:
prob *= (1.0 - event)
probability_of_one_event = 1 - prob
print("Probability of at one event is", probability_of_one_event)
I'm asking because the number I'm getting is 99%, which seems too high. I need help thinking about this. Thanks!