I am new to Winbugs and I am trying to code a random effects model for network-metaanalysis. I set a vague prior for standard deviation of the of the treatment effect "sd~dunif(0,5)" and I found out that sd's estimates eqaul ca. 2. When I increase or decrease this range the sd's estimates change proportionately. I would be grateful if someone could look at this code and maybe improve it.
The data structure is presented below: data_structure
#DATA
list(n=4, t=4, ref=1)
y[] se[] t1[] t2[]
0.8 0.09 1 2
0.73 0.12 1 3
1.03 0.34 3 4
0.4 0.2 1 4
END
- n - number of studies
- t - number of treatments
- ref - selected reference treatment for metaanalysis
- y - is the observed variable: treatment difference between t1 and t2
- se - is the standard error of y
- t1 - is the treatment in arm 1
- t2 - is the treatment in arm 2
RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL
model{
for (i in 1:n){
y[i]~dnorm(delta[i],prec[i])
var[i]<-pow(se[i],2)
prec[i]<-1/var[i]
delta[i]~dnorm(md[i],taud[i])
md[i]<-d[t2[i]]-d[t1[i]]
taud[i]<- tau*2
}
sd~dunif(0,5)
tau<-1/pow(sd,2)
for(k in 1:ref-1){
d[k]~dnorm(0,0.0001)
}
d[ref]<-0
for(k in ref+1:t){
d[k]~dnorm(0,0.0001)
}
}