The domain name I want is in "clienthold"; am I likely to be able to get this name?

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Before I begin, I guess this may not be strictly programming related but I think it's definitely related to web programming.

I'm after a domain for a startup project and I notice that it is currently on "clientHold" registrar status. From the research I've done this suggests that it is in dispute either due to an ownership dispute, a payment dispute or someone has suggested the domain is used by spammers/scammers. The whois data seems similar to other spammer details I've seen posted, and at the very least is largely anonymous.

The domain is registed with XIN NET who appear to be notorious for supporting spammer domains. I'd love to just contact the registrar but their site copyright is 2006 and I can't find any appropriate contact path. Even then, they are probably too large to actually deal with and my Chinese skills are limited to Google Translate.

One thing to note is that the expiry date for the domain isn't for a few months.

My questions are:

  • Is there any rule on how long a domain can be held in clientHold status?
  • Does the "last updated" whois data indicate when the domain was initially put on clientHold?
  • If the site is put up for deletion, will it enter a pending deletion status for some time or is it likely to just drop instantly?

Any details on how this stuff works would be appreciated.

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your best bet if you really want it is to use a backordering system like godaddy has. If after a few months it still hasnt become available, you can move your backorder to another domain.

In my expirience, rarely will you ever see a domain in this status become available.

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clientHold just means the domain won't resolve.

You can find now at https://icann.org/epp an explanation of all possible statuses, tailored for end users. It is mostly ok but applies only to gTLDs. ccTLDs may use the same statuses, or others, or with different semantics so it all depends on which TLD you are in.

So back to your questions:

Is there any rule on how long a domain can be held in clientHold status?

No. clientHold is under control of the registrar sponsoring currently the domain name, and which should be put on behalf possibly of end client. So a domain can be in perpetuity in this state for various reasons. There could be also serverHold which has the same consequences but is solely under control of the registry and can be used during disputes or domains confiscation.

Does the "last updated" whois data indicate when the domain was initially put on clientHold?

Maybe, maybe not. There could have been any other updates on the domain (change of contacts, change of nameservers, etc.) so the date really shows the last update without knowing what that update was.

If the site is put up for deletion,

This is unrelated to clientHold, except in the sense that some registrar can put a domain under this status at, or after expiration, as a last attempt to get attention from the registrant that it has to renew the domain at the registrar or else loose it. Make it temporarily not resolvable anymore has, from experience, the consequence of having some registrants, who did get already multiple email notifications of the impending expiration, suddenly realise they do have something to act on quickly.

For the way gTLDs are deleted/expired, refer to ICANN gTLD lifecycle at https://archive.icann.org/en/registrars/gtld-lifecycle.jpg It is similar, but not identical, in ccTLDs, so again it depends on the TLD you are in.

will it enter a pending deletion status for some time or is it likely to just drop instantly?

Again, depends on the TLD. But in gTLD it is redemptionPeriod (typically 30 days) after the registrar sends the delete command to registry, and then pendingDelete (typically 5 days) after that before the registry really deletes it finally from its database, after which it should come back as generally available for a new registration.